夏雪宜
夏雪宜
Focus on US stocks and walk with great companies.
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Right heart, right mind, together with Pangu
I am an old acquaintance of the Pangu community
The former Modu
The current Brother Yong
The future Lin Shao
Are all my benefactors
Are all my friends
I have already put all my coins into the pool
I have not run away
I just sold half to exchange for small fists
All thrown into the pool
I won't move unless it's under $160,000 per coin
Forever love, support, Pangu community
The poorer people are, the more they like to talk about loyalty; the richer they get, the more they prefer to talk about rules.
This isn't because the poor are noble and the rich are cold-hearted, but because the poor have no other chips to play. You have no money, no resources, no background, so the only thing you can offer in exchange is "loyalty." That's why relationships among the poor tend to be especially close—lending money without IOUs, helping without conditions—because everyone is on the same sinking ship, and pulling each other up is a survival instinct.
But once you have money, the radius of interests expands. Dealing with people is no longer just between two individuals; it involves two families, two companies, two sets of interest networks. At this point, relying on loyalty or saying "Brother, I trust you" to get things done will eventually backfire. That's why wealthy people use contracts, clauses, and lawyers—not because they lack sentiment, but because they can't afford to lose.
When Liu Bang was young, he drank and boasted with a group of brothers, full of loyalty. What happened after he became emperor? Han Xin was killed, Peng Yue was executed, Ying Bu rebelled. It's not that he changed, but his position changed. When your position changes, loyalty alone isn't enough; you must switch to rules and power tactics.
So don't blame friends for distancing themselves after they become successful. It's not that they've forgotten their roots; their world has become more complex, while you're still expecting them to follow the old simple logic.
Truly wise people are loyal but not overly sentimental when poor, and follow rules but don't forget gratitude when rich. Few have managed to do both throughout history.
Bitcoin fell below $70,000 today, closing at $69,065.
From the 52-week high of $126,198, it has dropped 45%. It fell 12% in the past 30 days and 9% in the past 7 days. This is the first time since April 2024 that it has broken below the $70k psychological level.
Many people are starting to ask the same question—Is this really different this time? Is the Bitcoin story over?
I want to seriously talk about this.
—
To answer this question, we first need to break down the "Bitcoin story." It’s not just one story, but three layers stacked together.
The first layer is the speculative bubble—phrases like "BTC will reach $1 million," "next cycle target $250k," "halving guarantees a big bull market."
The second layer is institutional asset allocation—"BTC in every institutional portfolio at 1-5%," "BlackRock bought it, why haven’t you?", "Sovereign wealth funds are entering."
The third layer is long-term digital gold—"BTC is decentralized store of value," "the ultimate tool against fiat depreciation," "the most important financial experiment of the 21st century."
These three layers have been told simultaneously by the market over the past 5 years, which explains the astonishing gains.
But today, each of these three layers is in a different situation.
—
The first layer, the speculative bubble—has ended.
The 2024-2025 surge from $40k to $126k was essentially a multiplier effect of three things: ETF approval + halving cycle + Fed rate cut expectations. These three events were realized within a 12-month window, pushing BTC to its all-time high.
But once realized, the story ended.
The ETF has passed—there’s zero chance of passing again.
The halving has happened—the next halving won’t be until 2028.
Rate cuts have started—the market has digested the pace of rate cuts for a year.
These three things fueled the recent "everyone rushing in" wave. Once the fuel is burned, the fire slowly dies down.
Robinhood retail account openings are declining. MSTR, the Bitcoin proxy stock, fell from $543 to below $200—its drop far exceeds BTC’s because its reflexivity premium collapsed. Futures positions have been fully cleared. The "to the moon" frenzy on social media is gone—only a few OGs (early holders) are mumbling "it will come back."
This layer of the story—told to retail, driven by FOMO, with ever-increasing price targets—has indeed ended. It won’t return in the short term.
—
The second layer, institutional asset allocation—is still alive but being repriced.
18 months after ETF approval, BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have accumulated net inflows exceeding $70 billion. This money won’t run just because BTC dropped 45%.
Institutions aren’t buying the price, they’re buying the narrative allocation—they want "an alternative asset slot in our portfolio labeled BTC." The existence of this slot doesn’t depend on how much BTC rises; it depends on "BTC as an asset class being established."
But one thing has changed—the institutional target price expectation for BTC has been cut from the 2024 "$200k is highly probable" to a "reasonable range of $80-120k."
This is the essence of the -45% in 2026—not institutional withdrawal, but institutional repricing.
The second layer story isn’t dead, just the ceiling has been cut in half.
—
The third layer, long-term digital gold—is intact but has little relation to short-term price.
BTC as a protocol-layer asset has several fundamental attributes unchanged. The hard supply constraint of halving every four years. The 21 million total supply cap. No central issuer can inflate it.
These attributes are exactly the same at $69k as at $126k.
If you believe in this layer of the story, today’s $69k is more of a "buying opportunity" than $126k was—because the underlying asset hasn’t changed, only market sentiment has.
But the return cycle for this layer is 5 to 15 years, not 5 to 15 months.
It’s not meant to explain "BTC’s short-term price fluctuations." It’s meant to explain "why Bitcoin won’t go to zero in 10 years."
—
Looking at these three layers together—
If "story" means "BTC was the best speculative asset in the past 5 years"—yes, that story is over. In the next 4-year cycle, BTC most likely won’t give you 5-10x returns. The market structure needed for such returns (retail frenzy + institutional absence + regulatory uncertainty) has completely reversed.
If "story" means "BTC is the most important financial experiment of this century"—it’s far from over. But you need to participate differently—not betting on gains, but long-term allocation + cyclical holding.
—
So why did it drop 45% this time? It’s not a single reason, but several things hitting at once.
Miner cost line: Current BTC mining cost (electricity + equipment depreciation) is about $60-70k. We are already at this line. Miners start shutting down or selling coins to survive, increasing selling pressure. This is a hard supply-side pressure.
LTH distribution: On-chain data shows "long-term holders" (not moved for over 6 months) started large-scale selling from January 2026. These are the real "price ceiling" executors—they collectively took profits above $100k. Every cycle top is distributed by LTH.
ETF net outflow: Since May, ETFs have seen continuous net outflows. Institutions are reducing positions to rebalance portfolios—the BTC allocated at the start of the year rose too much and needs to be adjusted back. This is healthy but creates short-term selling pressure.
Macro damage: US stocks started adjusting from late May. The overheated SaaS sector crashed, dragging all risk assets down. BTC is the highest beta among all risk assets—its 30-day correlation with Nasdaq has long been stable above 0.7. When Nasdaq falls 5%, BTC usually falls 10-15%.
MSTR reflexivity: Saylor’s "infinite bond issuance to buy BTC" model hit a bottleneck. MSTR stock price fell from $543 to $180; after the premium collapsed, he no longer has the ability to issue bonds to buy—this in turn puts selling pressure on BTC. This has been BTC’s "hidden leverage" over the past year, now receding.
All five factors together make a 45% drop reasonable. If it hadn’t dropped 45%, that would be strange.
—
What’s next?
Not a prediction, but a probability judgment.
Short term 1-3 months: Wide range oscillation between $60k and $72k. $60k is triple support from miner cost + previous low + psychological round number—unless a black swan event occurs, the probability of breaking below is low. $72k is the rebound resistance of this drop—there is a large amount of trapped positions above. This range is the most frustrating—neither crashing nor rallying, just grinding every day.
